October 22 , 2025
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- The Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool forms every April–May near the Kerala coast with sea surface temperatures above 30°C.
- This warm pool triggers local convection and helps attract south westerly monsoon winds toward the Indian subcontinent.
- El Niño events delay the Indian Summer Monsoon by disrupting wind patterns in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
- The Indian Ocean Capacitor Effect causes a delayed warming response in the Indian Ocean 4–5 months after El Niño.
- Easterly winds reduce surface cooling, intensifying the Mini Warm Pool in the southeastern Arabian Sea.
- A stronger warm pool generates low pressure that pulls moist winds toward Kerala, supporting a timely monsoon onset.
- In 2010, despite a strong El Niño, the monsoon arrived early due to this warm pool, as shown by IIT Delhi simulations.
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