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Global Carbon Budget Warning
November 21 , 2025
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- Global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching a record 38.1 billion tonnes.
- Total CO₂ emissions (fossil fuels plus land-use change) are slightly lower this year because land-use change emissions dropped to 4.1 billion tonnes.
- The land carbon sink recovered to pre-El Niño levels after the end of the 2023–24 El Niño pattern.
- Climate change has weakened land and ocean carbon sinks, contributing 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO₂ since 1960.
- The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is 170 billion tonnes, equivalent to four years at the 2025 emission rate.
- China’s emissions are projected to grow by 0.4%, India’s by 1.4%, the USAs by 1.9% and the European Union’s by 0.4%.
- Japan’s emissions are projected to fall by 2.2%.
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