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Northeast monsoon 2025
January 4 , 2026
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- Tamil Nadu experienced a normal northeast monsoon (October-December) in 2025, as against the forecast of above normal rainfall.
- It has almost touched the paddy coverage target during the long-term Samba-Thaladi-Pishanam cultivation season.
- Against the overall target of 33.9 lakh acres, the coverage was 33.8 lakh acres, of which around 13 lakh acres were in the Cauvery delta and the rest in the other parts of the State.
- The five-year-long average for coverage is 34.8 lakh acres.
- One of the reasons was the continuous water availability, as the State had received 58 cm of rain during March-September.
- In fact, in 2025, the summer rainfall was quite heavy: the State recorded 25 cm in March and April, almost double the normal amount.
- During the southwest monsoon, the rainfall was 33 cm, the expected amount.
- Though the northeast monsoon yielded only 43 cm against the anticipated 44 cm, and four districts alone (Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, Virudhunagar, and Ranipet) received excess rain, the fairly comfortable groundwater position in general and one more year of Cauvery water surplus in the delta in particular ensured that the major cultivation season went off without hassle.
- This season, around 14.8 lakh tonnes of paddy were procured against the normal 5 lakh tonnes.
- In the coming eight months, including the lean season, about 38 lakh tonnes more is expected to be procured.
- During 2024-25, the total quantity of food grains procured was about 48 lakh tonnes.
- Northeast monsoon is likely to end with slightly below-normal rain in T.N. after a six-year surplus trend.
- After maintaining a six-year streak of normal or surplus rainfall since 2019, Tamil Nadu is likely to record slightly below-normal rainfall during the Northeast monsoon this year.
- Tamil Nadu has so far recorded 42.7 cm, which is 3% lower than the seasonal average of 43.8 cm.
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) considers deficit or surplus rainfall up to 19% as normal.
- According to the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), a trough in the Easterlies running over the southeast Bay of Bengal would influence mild rainfall, particularly over south Tamil Nadu and districts along the Western Ghats.
- IMD considers December 31 as the official end of the NE monsoon.
- The monsoon rainfall has spilt over into January in previous years.
- The absence of a Madden–Julian Oscillation, a large-scale eastward-moving band that plays a crucial part in enhancing cloud formation and rainfall, over the Indian Ocean during November and December, was the major reason behind the prolonged dry spell.
- Though an Equatorial Rossby wave, an atmospheric wave pattern that influences tropical weather patterns, aided rainfall through Cyclone Ditwah during early December, it was insufficient to revive widespread rainfall across the state.
- Chennai’s five-year streak of surplus rainfall since 2020 has come to an end this year.
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